Ashford Home Owners Are Only Moving Every 13.5 Years (part 1)

Ashford People are moving less than the 1990's

 

As mentioned in a previous article, the average house price in Ashford is currently 9.15 times the average annual Ashford salary. This is higher than the last 2008 peak, when the ratio was 8.81. A number of City commentators anticipated that in the ambiguity that trailed the Brexit vote, UK (and hence Ashford) property prices might drop like a stone. The point is – they haven’t.

Now it’s true the market for Ashford’s swankiest and poshest properties looks a little fragile (although they are selling if realistically priced) and overall, Ashford property price growth has slowed, but the lower to middle Ashford property market appears to be quite strong.

Scratch under the surface though, and a different long-term picture is emerging away from what is happening to property prices. Ashford people are moving home less often than they once did. Data from the Office of National Statistics shows that the number of properties sold in 2016 is again much lower than it was in the Noughties. My research shows …

Ashford Property sales per annumProperties sold in AShford area year by year since 1995

Even though we are not anywhere near the low, post 2008-09, credit crunch levels of property sales, torpor in the Ashford housing market following the 2016 Brexit vote has seen the number of property sales in Ashford and the surrounding local authority area level off to what appears to be the start of a new long term trend (compared to the Noughties).

Interestingly, it was the 1980’s that saw the highest levels of people moving home. Nationally, everyone was moving on average every decade. Even though it was during the Labour administration of the late 1970’s where the right to buy one’s council house started, it was the Housing Act of 1980 that that really got council tenants moving, as Thatcher’s Tory government financially encouraged council tenants to buy their council-rented homes – for which countless then sold them on for a fat profit and moved elsewhere. The housing market was awash with money as banks were allowed to offer mortgages as well as the existing building societies, meaning it made it simpler for Brits to borrow even more money on mortgages and thus climb up the housing ladder.

But coming back to today, looking at the property sales figures in the Ashford area since 2010/11, a new trend of number of property sales appears to have started. Interestingly, this has been mirrored nationally. The reasons behind this are complex, but a good place to start is the growth rate of real UK household disposable income, which has fallen from 5.01% a year in 2000 to 1.68% in 2016. Also, things have deteriorated since the country voted to leave the EU as consumer price inflation has risen to 2.7% per annum, meaning inflation has eaten away at the real value of wages (as they have only grown by 1.1% in the same time frame).

With meagre real income growth, it has become more difficult for homeowners to accumulate the savings needed to climb up the housing ladder as the level of saving has also dropped from 4.26% of household income to -1.11% (i.e. people are eating into their savings).

Next week I will be discussing how these, and other issues, has meant the level of Ashford people moving home has slumped to an average of once every 13.5 years.